September’s new-home sales came in stronger than expected, but the results varied widely by region. The Northeast and West recorded monthly gains, while the South and Midwest declined.
For builders, agents, and investors, where you operate matters as much as the national headline.
That local context is central to conversations at Real Estate Forum (REF): what are buyers responding to, where is inventory moving, and how do conditions differ from one community to the next?
A smaller decline than expected
U.S. new-home sales fell 0.6% in September 2026 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000. Economists had expected a 4.5% decline and approximately 650,000 sales, putting the reported pace about 4% above forecasts.
August’s estimate was revised from 684,000 to 680,000. September’s monthly comparison uses that revised figure.
The annualized rate reflects the seasonally adjusted sales pace, not the number of homes sold in September alone.
The result beat expectations, but sales were still 5.3% below September 2025. One month of near-steady activity does not establish a recovery.
You can also read: 100% Bonus Depreciation Is Permanent: What CRE Investors Need to Know.
Prices and inventory give buyers more to consider
The median new-home sale price was $400,400, down 3.9% from a year earlier but up 3.9% from August’s revised $385,400. The average sale price was $472,800, down 6.7% year over year.
Monthly median prices can change because different types and sizes of homes sell. The increase does not necessarily mean individual homes gained value.
Meanwhile, 476,000 new homes were available for sale, compared with 481,000 in August. Inventory was 2.3% lower than a year earlier.
That represented 8.4 months of supply, slightly below August’s 8.5 months, but above 8.2 months a year earlier. Buyers still had options, making competitive pricing and a clear understanding of nearby alternatives relevant for sellers.
For a related perspective on how future supply can affect local conditions, see REF’s discussion of multifamily construction starts and housing supply.
You can also read: December 31 Is the Deadline: Your Q4 Depreciation Playbook.
Regional results tell different stories
Region September annualized sales Change from August August annualized sales Year-earlier annualized sales
Northeast 32,000 +28.0% 25,000 29,000
Midwest 89,000 −7.3% 96,000 97,000
South 413,000 −6.6% 442,000 416,000
West 142,000 +21.4% 117,000 172,000
The South remained the largest market, but its annualized sales pace fell by 29,000, contributing the largest decline in volume.
The West rebounded from August, yet sales were still approximately 17% below a year earlier. Its strong monthly increase therefore tells only part of the story.
These are regional estimates, not city-level results. A decline across the South does not establish that every Texas market slowed, just as growth in the West does not mean every local market improved. Monthly estimates also carry sampling uncertainty and can be revised.
You can also read: Real Estate Forum in Texas: How to Choose the Right One.
Bring the numbers back to your market
For builders, the practical question is how nearby projects compare on pricing, available homes, and buyer interest. For agents, it is whether local listings and signed contracts support the national story.
For investors, it is how demand and competing supply look around the specific property under consideration.
Project timelines also matter when supply is being delivered; builders can review practical ways to reduce construction delays through better planning and coordination.
September’s report gives those conversations a starting point. Local experience gives them context.
You can also read: Tax Planning for Real Estate Investors: A Month-by-Month Calendar.
Your city’s numbers may tell a different story
Connect with peers through REF and bring that conversation to your local chapter. Share what you are seeing, compare experiences, and put the national headlines into perspective for your market.
Source: MarketCatalyst’s October 27, 2026 housing report, citing U.S. Census Bureau and HUD data; forecasts are economist estimates reported by MarketCatalyst.